Utica Comets at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Utica Comets

0:3

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

UTCROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 2.01.6
High danger: 40
Chances: 67
Shots: 2321

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal21

6Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances0

1.99Expected goals1.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–10	1–4	1–0	0.2–0.8
2nd	9–5	2–1	0–0	0.7–0.2
3rd	11–6	3–2	3–0	1.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	3	10:07 of the 3rd	9:53	9:53	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 23
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.99
GSAx: +1.99

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.56
GSAx: -1.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:27Penalty
1st 16:49Nikita Novikov (0–1)low · 68 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 8:00Penalty
2nd 13:44Isak Rosén (0–2)medium · 30 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 16:00Penalty
3rd 6:43Penalty
3rd 7:09Penalty
3rd 8:11Penalty
3rd 10:07Ryan Johnson (0–3)5v4 · low · 38 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 14:39Penalty
3rd 15:55Penalty
3rd 15:55Penalty