AHLDashboard
Friday, January 23

Grand Rapids Griffins at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Grand Rapids Griffins
2:1
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

GRMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
56%44%
xG
2.01.9
High danger
22
Chances
78
Shots
2821

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal21
7Scoring chances8
2High-danger chances2
2.05Expected goals1.93

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12510000.50.2
2nd9755101.00.9
3rd7913120.50.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
2.05
GSAx
+0.05
Shots faced
21
Saves
20
Allowed
1
xGA
1.93
GSAx
+0.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 14:17Penalty
  • 2nd 1:22Penalty
  • 2nd 2:45Sheldon Dries (1–0)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 5:18Penalty
  • 2nd 18:52Mason Shaw (1–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 19:42Penalty
  • 3rd 11:01Penalty
  • 3rd 12:04Gabriel Seger (2–1)4v5 · low · 13 ft · beat Thomas Milic