Texas Stars at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Texas Stars

5:0

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

TEXRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 4.11.8
High danger: 63
Chances: 197
Shots: 3624

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal24

19Scoring chances7

6High-danger chances3

4.12Expected goals1.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–5	2–1	0–0	0.9–0.3
2nd	14–7	10–3	2–1	1.6–0.5
3rd	8–12	7–3	4–2	1.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 31
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.12
GSAx: -0.88

Arno Tiefensee

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 24
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: +1.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:00Curtis McKenzie (1–0)low · 33 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 12:13Cameron Hughes (2–0)low · tip · 50 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 13:40Penalty
1st 15:47Kyle McDonald (3–0)medium · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 15:02Penalty
2nd 15:16Penalty
2nd 15:16Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:36Jack Becker (4–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 1:58Penalty
3rd 3:22Harrison Scott (5–0)4v5 · medium · 35 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 14:37Penalty
3rd 14:37Penalty