Colorado Eagles at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Colorado Eagles

4:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

COLBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 4.62.6
High danger: 85
Chances: 1711
Shots: 4526

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

45Shots on goal26

17Scoring chances11

8High-danger chances5

4.64Expected goals2.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	21–5	5–1	2–1	1.7–0.3
2nd	12–10	6–6	3–3	1.5–1.2
3rd	12–11	6–4	3–1	1.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 45
Saves: 41
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.64
GSAx: +0.64

Kyle Keyser

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: +1.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:11T.J. Tynan (1–0)medium · snap · 28 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 10:01Penalty
1st 15:57Penalty
2nd 8:40Sean Behrens (2–0)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 11:12Penalty
2nd 16:27Ethan Keppen (2–1)medium · snap · 24 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
3rd 4:53Alex Barré-Boulet (3–1)low · 34 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 5:15Penalty
3rd 14:57Penalty
3rd 18:07Ivan Ivan (4–1)empty net · low · 131 ft · beat Matt Tomkins