Ontario Reign at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Ontario Reign

3:2

Final / OT

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

ONTCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 1.62.9
High danger: 01
Chances: 87
Shots: 1734

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal34

8Scoring chances7

0High-danger chances1

1.59Expected goals2.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	4–2	0–0	0.7–0.7
2nd	2–13	0–2	0–0	0.1–0.9
3rd	7–8	4–2	0–0	0.7–0.6
OT	1–1	0–1	0–1	0.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:43	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.85
GSAx: +0.85

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 8
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.89
GSAx: -1.11

Jack LaFontaine

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 6
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.70
GSAx: -0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:16Glenn Gawdin (1–0)medium · 22 ft · beat Jack LaFontaine
1st 17:38Eduard Šalé (1–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 1:45Penalty
2nd 6:24Penalty
2nd 6:24Penalty
2nd 16:23Penalty
3rd 2:36Cole Guttman (2–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 8:25Penalty
3rd 8:25Penalty
3rd 8:25Penalty
3rd 8:25Penalty
3rd 8:25Penalty
3rd 17:39John Hayden (2–2)medium · 27 ft · beat Erik Portillo
OT 0:34Nikita Alexandrov (3–2)low · 12 ft · beat Victor Östman