Belleville Senators at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Belleville Senators

1:0

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BELSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 2.23.0
High danger: 32
Chances: 97
Shots: 2540

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal40

9Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances2

2.18Expected goals3.02

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–16	3–2	1–1	0.5–1.1
2nd	15–9	5–2	2–0	1.4–0.7
3rd	3–15	1–3	0–1	0.2–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 40
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.02
GSAx: +3.02

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: +1.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:16Penalty
1st 11:17Jan Jeník (1–0)medium · 28 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 17:02Penalty
2nd 3:27Penalty
2nd 5:29Penalty
3rd 9:50Penalty
3rd 17:04Penalty