Iowa Wild at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Iowa Wild

2:4

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

IAMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 2.63.9
High danger: 47
Chances: 715
Shots: 3031

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal31

7Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances7

2.63Expected goals3.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–13	2–7	1–3	0.8–1.6
2nd	10–13	4–5	2–3	1.2–1.6
3rd	8–5	1–3	1–1	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.87
GSAx: -0.13

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: +0.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:57Penalty
1st 12:14Penalty
1st 13:55Penalty
2nd 4:13Penalty
2nd 11:18Penalty
2nd 12:36Ryan Ufko (0–1)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 18:21Joey Willis (0–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 18:37Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (1–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 19:34Penalty
3rd 4:11Penalty
3rd 4:52Penalty
3rd 5:09Hunter Haight (2–2)high · 22 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 9:09Penalty
3rd 12:28Ryder Rolston (2–3)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 19:30Penalty
3rd 19:49Joakim Kemell (2–4)empty net · medium · 27 ft · beat Cal Petersen