Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

3:4

Final / OT

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

89%11%

xG: 4.11.9
High danger: 70
Chances: 137
Shots: 2822

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal22

13Scoring chances7

7High-danger chances0

4.13Expected goals1.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–7	3–3	2–0	0.9–0.7
2nd	13–7	4–3	2–0	1.2–0.6
3rd	7–7	4–1	1–0	1.2–0.5
OT	2–1	2–0	2–0	0.9–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:46	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.14
GSAx: +1.14

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: -2.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:07Penalty
1st 0:07Penalty
1st 0:13Penalty
1st 0:13Penalty
1st 2:57Penalty
1st 8:10Ilya Protas (1–0)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
1st 9:47Penalty
1st 9:47Penalty
1st 10:52David Gucciardi (2–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
2nd 8:35Zayde Wisdom (2–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 10:27Karsen Dorwart (2–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 11:55Tucker Robertson (2–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 19:42Brett Leason (3–3)grade A · 11 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
OT 1:47Tucker Robertson (3–4)low · 25 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund