Toronto Marlies at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Toronto Marlies

4:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

TORHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.93.9
High danger: 76
Chances: 915
Shots: 2438

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal38

9Scoring chances15

7High-danger chances6

2.88Expected goals3.92

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–15	2–8	2–4	0.5–2.0
2nd	8–13	2–3	1–1	1.0–1.1
3rd	11–10	5–4	4–1	1.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 37
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.92
GSAx: +2.92

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 17
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: +1.31

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 3
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.57
GSAx: -2.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:10Vinni Lettieri (1–0)low · 17 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 8:49Penalty
1st 9:30Cédric Paré (2–0)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 11:58Penalty
1st 15:20Penalty
1st 17:47Brendan Brisson (2–1)low · 12 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 2:24Matthew Barbolini (3–1)low · 26 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 2:43Ryan Tverberg (4–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 18:54Penalty
2nd 18:54Penalty
3rd 0:48Penalty
3rd 2:17Penalty
3rd 7:59Penalty