Chicago Wolves at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Chicago Wolves

4:1

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

CHIRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.41.9
High danger: 43
Chances: 74
Shots: 2929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal29

7Scoring chances4

4High-danger chances3

2.38Expected goals1.90

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	0–0	0–0	0.6–0.2
2nd	7–9	2–2	2–2	0.6–0.8
3rd	12–13	5–2	2–1	1.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.90
GSAx: +0.90

Stanislav Berezhnoy

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -1.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:48Ronan Seeley (1–0)low · 49 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
1st 11:09Penalty
1st 17:39Penalty
2nd 5:33Penalty
2nd 5:33Penalty
2nd 6:34Penalty
2nd 9:19Noel Gunler (2–0)high · tip · 15 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 14:03Penalty
2nd 17:11Nikita Pavlychev (3–0)high · tip · 16 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 0:58Penalty
3rd 15:37Skyler Brind’Amour (4–0)high · tip · 12 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 16:25Penalty
3rd 19:11Sam Rinzel (4–1)low · 17 ft · beat Cayden Primeau