Colorado Eagles at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Colorado Eagles

1:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

COLONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 1.82.4
High danger: 05
Chances: 59
Shots: 2922

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal22

5Scoring chances9

0High-danger chances5

1.83Expected goals2.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	2–4	0–2	0.6–1.0
2nd	12–11	3–3	0–2	0.9–0.9
3rd	8–4	0–2	0–1	0.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	3	8:12 of the 3rd	11:48	11:48	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: +0.83

Kyle Keyser

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 13
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.43
GSAx: -0.57

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 5
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.99
GSAx: -1.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:18Cole Guttman (0–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 7:05Cole Guttman (0–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 8:12Penalty
1st 18:46Penalty
2nd 12:12Andre Lee (0–3)low · 36 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
2nd 12:44Penalty
2nd 12:44Penalty
2nd 13:23Danil Gushchin (1–3)low · 51 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 0:55Penalty
3rd 6:03Penalty
3rd 6:44Penalty
3rd 8:12Aatu Jämsen (1–4)5v4 · medium · 13 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
3rd 18:33Penalty
3rd 18:33Penalty
3rd 18:33Penalty