Tucson Roadrunners at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Tucson Roadrunners

3:4

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

TUCHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 2.04.6
High danger: 512
Chances: 620
Shots: 1831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal31

6Scoring chances20

5High-danger chances12

1.99Expected goals4.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	2–13	2–9	1–6	0.3–2.2
2nd	5–12	1–8	1–4	0.3–1.6
3rd	11–6	3–3	3–2	1.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	16:47 of the 3rd	3:13	3:13	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.56
GSAx: +0.56

Jesper Vikman

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 15
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.99
GSAx: -1.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:46Penalty
1st 1:56Kai Uchacz (0–1)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 3:09Penalty
1st 3:31Penalty
1st 4:08Sloan Stanick (0–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 27 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 8:16Penalty
1st 13:30Andrew Agozzino (1–2)high · wrist · rebound · 13 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
2nd 3:32Penalty
2nd 9:57Penalty
2nd 12:50Penalty
3rd 2:56Ty Tullio (2–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 31 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 6:38Penalty
3rd 10:12Penalty
3rd 11:12Penalty
3rd 12:35Tuomas Uronen (2–3)5v4 · high · snap · 11 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 15:38Penalty
3rd 16:47Tuomas Uronen (2–4)5v4 · high · snap · rebound · 34 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 16:55Penalty
3rd 16:55Penalty
3rd 16:55Penalty
3rd 16:55Penalty
3rd 16:55Penalty
3rd 17:33Austin Poganski (3–4)grade A · wrist · rebound · 33 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 19:30Penalty