Grand Rapids Griffins at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:3

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

GRMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 2.83.0
High danger: 45
Chances: 128
Shots: 2837

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal37

12Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances5

2.81Expected goals3.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–9	5–0	3–0	1.7–0.6
2nd	5–10	3–4	0–2	0.5–1.1
3rd	7–18	4–4	1–3	0.7–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	1	19:33 of the 3rd	0:27	0:27	+0.008 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 34
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: +0.03

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.81
GSAx: +0.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:03Penalty
1st 15:55Kale Clague (0–1)low · 18 ft · beat Michal Postava
1st 19:31Sheldon Dries (1–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 12:57Penalty
3rd 0:55John Leonard (2–1)high · 6 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 9:23Danny Zhilkin (2–2)low · 36 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 11:08Penalty
3rd 19:33Brad Lambert (2–3)low · 10 ft · beat Michal Postava