San Diego Gulls at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

San Diego Gulls

0:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

SDABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 2.92.9
High danger: 45
Chances: 119
Shots: 3329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal29

11Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances5

2.85Expected goals2.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	3–2	0–1	0.7–1.0
2nd	11–14	5–5	3–3	1.1–1.5
3rd	13–4	3–2	1–1	1.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aku Koskenvuo

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 33
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.85
GSAx: +2.85

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.88
GSAx: -1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:57Ty Mueller (0–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 4:54Penalty
2nd 7:12Danila Klimovich (0–2)grade A · 15 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 10:15Penalty
2nd 18:15Victor Mancini (0–3)low · 50 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 3:42Penalty
3rd 10:42Ty Mueller (0–4)high · 8 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 15:00Penalty
3rd 18:20Penalty
3rd 18:20Penalty