Tucson Roadrunners at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Tucson Roadrunners

3:2

Final / OT

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

TUCHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 2.12.8
High danger: 14
Chances: 77
Shots: 2535

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal35

7Scoring chances7

1High-danger chances4

2.13Expected goals2.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	1–3	0–1	0.4–0.9
2nd	11–10	3–3	0–3	0.9–1.0
3rd	3–12	1–1	1–0	0.6–0.8
OT	3–2	2–0	0–0	0.3–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:19	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: +0.78

Cameron Whitehead

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.13
GSAx: -0.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:12Penalty
1st 5:07Jakub Brabenec (0–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 46 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 9:19Penalty
1st 10:48Penalty
1st 13:42Penalty
1st 17:03Matyas Sapovaliv (0–2)medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 0:56Penalty
2nd 3:40Penalty
2nd 16:36Penalty
2nd 17:41Andrew Agozzino (1–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 33 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
2nd 18:32Penalty
2nd 18:32Penalty
2nd 19:40Penalty
3rd 8:10Penalty
3rd 12:08Penalty
3rd 19:15Sammy Walker (2–2)grade A · tip · 30 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
OT 4:27Ben McCartney (3–2)medium · wrist · 21 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead