Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs

3:5

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 4.03.8
High danger: 47
Chances: 1514
Shots: 4236

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal36

15Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances7

4.04Expected goals3.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–22	5–8	1–3	0.9–2.2
2nd	16–7	4–2	1–1	1.7–0.5
3rd	15–7	6–4	2–3	1.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	17:47 of the 3rd	2:13	2:13	+0.049 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 39
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.04
GSAx: +1.04

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.21
GSAx: +0.21

Stanislav Berezhnoy

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 10
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.57
GSAx: -0.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:49Jake Lucchini (0–1)low · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 9:41Penalty
1st 10:42Dominic Toninato (1–1)4v5 · high · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 11:04Jordan Oesterle (1–2)5v4 · medium · 13 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 13:17Penalty
1st 15:07Penalty
2nd 3:03Penalty
2nd 3:03Penalty
2nd 5:19Rem Pitlick (2–2)grade A · 194 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 5:48Penalty
2nd 5:48Penalty
2nd 8:59Penalty
2nd 8:59Penalty
2nd 10:40Penalty
2nd 10:40Penalty
2nd 11:09Penalty
2nd 11:09Penalty
2nd 11:09Penalty
2nd 11:09Penalty
2nd 11:09Penalty
2nd 11:09Penalty
2nd 11:32Reid Schaefer (2–3)high · 8 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 13:46Penalty
2nd 13:46Penalty
2nd 13:46Penalty
2nd 13:46Penalty
2nd 14:07Penalty
2nd 15:01Ethan Del Mastro (3–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 19:16Penalty
2nd 19:16Penalty
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 7:54Penalty
3rd 11:17Penalty
3rd 13:06Penalty
3rd 17:47Penalty
3rd 17:47Penalty
3rd 17:47Zach L’Heureux (3–4)high · 14 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 18:49Reid Schaefer (3–5)empty net · low · 61 ft
3rd 19:22Penalty