Charlotte Checkers at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Charlotte Checkers

7:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

CLTHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 2.62.4
High danger: 60
Chances: 1212
Shots: 2129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal29

12Scoring chances12

6High-danger chances0

2.64Expected goals2.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	5–4	1–0	0.9–0.8
2nd	3–9	1–4	1–0	0.3–0.8
3rd	10–9	6–4	4–0	1.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: +1.43

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 14
Allowed: 7
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: -4.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:17Penalty
1st 5:52Nate Smith (1–0)high · 17 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 16:48Ben Steeves (2–0)medium · 6 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 8:43Penalty
2nd 12:03Brett Chorske (3–0)high · 20 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 3:54Penalty
3rd 4:12Jack Studnicka (4–0)4v5 · grade A · 9 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 7:50Brett Chorske (5–0)high · 21 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 11:58Wilmer Skoog (6–0)low · 32 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 13:12Riese Gaber (7–0)high · 14 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 15:27Penalty
3rd 18:29Daniel Walcott (7–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Cooper Black