Colorado Eagles at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Colorado Eagles

2:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

COLCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 3.43.4
High danger: 97
Chances: 1712
Shots: 2730

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal30

17Scoring chances12

9High-danger chances7

3.39Expected goals3.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	7–4	4–2	1.6–1.4
2nd	7–8	5–3	2–0	0.9–0.7
3rd	8–10	5–5	3–5	0.9–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kyle Keyser

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: +2.41

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.39
GSAx: +1.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:40Penalty
1st 8:04Logan Morrison (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
1st 9:03Penalty
1st 9:03Penalty
1st 17:09Penalty
1st 18:52Alex Barré-Boulet (1–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 7:58Penalty
2nd 18:27Penalty
3rd 1:08Penalty
3rd 3:38Penalty
3rd 4:35Jason Polin (2–1)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 7:24Penalty