Abbotsford Canucks at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

2:5

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

ABBONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 2.52.0
High danger: 63
Chances: 89
Shots: 2518

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal18

8Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances3

2.53Expected goals1.97

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–6	3–3	2–0	0.7–0.5
2nd	7–9	1–4	1–2	0.7–1.0
3rd	11–3	4–2	3–1	1.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: +0.53

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 13
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.97
GSAx: -3.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:42Andre Lee (0–1)low · 58 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 12:11Penalty
1st 19:07Lukas Reichel (1–1)high · 17 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 2:09Jared Wright (1–2)high · 17 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 11:57Penalty
2nd 12:03Penalty
2nd 14:15Glenn Gawdin (1–3)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 18:00Aatu Jämsen (1–4)high · 6 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 2:14Francesco Pinelli (1–5)medium · 24 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 3:34Penalty
3rd 8:07Vilmer Alriksson (2–5)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Erik Portillo