Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

1:2

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

LVSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.12.2
High danger: 44
Chances: 89
Shots: 2224

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal24

8Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances4

2.14Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–10	1–6	0–2	0.3–1.2
2nd	10–7	5–1	3–1	1.3–0.4
3rd	7–7	2–2	1–1	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +0.24

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: +1.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:09Penalty
1st 6:32Juraj Pekarcik (0–1)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 9:43Penalty
1st 17:42Penalty
1st 18:48Chris Wagner (0–2)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 9:28Penalty
2nd 16:05Penalty
2nd 16:53Phil Tomasino (1–2)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 18:27Penalty
3rd 1:07Penalty
3rd 10:27Penalty
3rd 10:27Penalty