Colorado Eagles at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Colorado Eagles

3:1

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

COLTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 3.62.8
High danger: 55
Chances: 1313
Shots: 3027

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal27

13Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances5

3.56Expected goals2.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–5	5–1	3–0	1.5–0.3
2nd	14–10	4–7	1–2	1.2–1.4
3rd	7–12	4–5	1–3	0.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: +0.56

Isak Posch

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: +1.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:35Penalty
1st 5:55Valtteri Puustinen (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 9:03Penalty
1st 15:47Mark Senden (2–0)grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 1:18Ben McCartney (2–1)high · 10 ft · beat Isak Posch
2nd 8:57Penalty
2nd 13:27Penalty
2nd 16:12Penalty
3rd 1:46Penalty
3rd 8:03Penalty
3rd 13:36Penalty
3rd 18:50Jason Polin (3–1)empty net · medium · 23 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber