AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 30

Abbotsford Canucks at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Abbotsford Canucks
2:7
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ABBBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
37%63%
xG
4.14.7
High danger
48
Chances
1619
Shots
3840

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal40
16Scoring chances19
4High-danger chances8
4.13Expected goals4.74

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–184–110–60.9–2.5
2nd14–116–34–11.8–0.9
3rd15–116–50–11.4–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−50:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB50:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
38
Saves
36
Allowed
2
xGA
4.13
GSAx
+2.13
Jiří Patera
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
2.50
GSAx
-0.50
Aku Koskenvuo
Shots faced
16
Saves
12
Allowed
4
xGA
2.24
GSAx
-1.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:55James Hamblin (0–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
  • 1st 9:17Viljami Marjala (0–2)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
  • 1st 11:52Penalty
  • 1st 14:33Penalty
  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 1st 15:13Damien Carfagna (0–3)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
  • 1st 16:08Seth Griffith (0–4)medium · wrist · 27 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
  • 1st 18:15Max Jones (0–5)high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Jiří Patera
  • 2nd 0:22Penalty
  • 2nd 4:32Penalty
  • 2nd 4:32Penalty
  • 2nd 5:38Penalty
  • 2nd 6:19Penalty
  • 2nd 7:12Penalty
  • 2nd 19:56Penalty
  • 2nd 19:56Penalty
  • 2nd 19:56Penalty
  • 2nd 19:56Penalty
  • 2nd 19:56Penalty
  • 2nd 19:56Penalty
  • 3rd 3:44Roby Järventie (0–6)5v4 · medium · wrist · 19 ft · beat Jiří Patera
  • 3rd 5:10Penalty
  • 3rd 6:49Jimmy Schuldt (1–6)5v4 · low · slap · 48 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 8:01Penalty
  • 3rd 8:25Arshdeep Bains (2–6)5v4 · medium · wrist · 31 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 9:05Penalty
  • 3rd 9:05Penalty
  • 3rd 9:05Penalty
  • 3rd 9:05Penalty
  • 3rd 9:05Penalty
  • 3rd 9:05Penalty
  • 3rd 9:05Penalty
  • 3rd 9:05Penalty
  • 3rd 12:14Penalty
  • 3rd 12:26Penalty
  • 3rd 14:16Penalty
  • 3rd 15:52Sam Poulin (2–7)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 11 ft · beat Jiří Patera