San Diego Gulls at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Diego Gulls

4:3

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SDCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 3.52.8
High danger: 75
Chances: 1311
Shots: 3929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal29

13Scoring chances11

7High-danger chances5

3.49Expected goals2.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	3–2	2–1	0.8–0.6
2nd	17–9	6–3	3–1	1.6–0.7
3rd	12–13	4–6	2–3	1.1–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	18:11 of the 3rd	1:49	1:49	+0.042 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 35
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.49
GSAx: -0.51

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: -0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:28Carson Rehkopf (0–1)low · 10 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
1st 8:16Penalty
1st 10:12Stian Solberg (1–1)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Victor Östman
1st 17:42Penalty
2nd 7:34Penalty
2nd 9:48Judd Caulfield (2–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 17:51Penalty
2nd 19:50Yegor Sidorov (3–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 5:11Ty Nelson (3–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 6:15Penalty
3rd 13:54Penalty
3rd 14:58Jani Nyman (3–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 18:11Yegor Sidorov (4–3)low · 32 ft · beat Victor Östman