Providence Bruins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Providence Bruins

4:1

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

PROCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 1.71.9
High danger: 33
Chances: 56
Shots: 2120

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal20

5Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances3

1.68Expected goals1.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–3	1–0	1–0	0.6–0.1
2nd	5–5	2–2	1–1	0.4–0.5
3rd	7–12	2–4	1–2	0.7–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:01	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.68
GSAx: -2.32

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: +0.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:15Riley Tufte (1–0)high · 17 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 11:12Penalty
3rd 0:29Penalty
3rd 3:41Penalty
3rd 7:19Riley Tufte (2–0)low · 18 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 9:01Penalty
3rd 12:19Penalty
3rd 13:03Brett Chorske (2–1)4v5 · grade A · 12 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 13:53John Farinacci (3–1)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 14:50Dans Locmelis (4–1)low · 51 ft · beat Cooper Black