Syracuse Crunch at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Syracuse Crunch

1:4

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

SYRWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.42.1
High danger: 35
Chances: 109
Shots: 2718

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal18

10Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances5

2.42Expected goals2.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–7	0–4	0–3	0.2–1.0
2nd	7–4	3–1	2–0	0.7–0.2
3rd	14–7	7–4	1–2	1.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	18:30	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.42
GSAx: +1.42

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 14
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.13
GSAx: -1.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:09Avery Hayes (0–1)high · backhand · 13 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
1st 8:37Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (0–2)grade A · tip · rebound · 10 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 18:47Matt Dumba (0–3)low · wrist · 57 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 2:19Penalty
3rd 3:46Conor Geekie (1–3)5v4 · medium · slap · 56 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 4:08Penalty
3rd 5:16Gabe Klassen (1–4)4v5 · low · wrist · 75 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 13:08Penalty
3rd 13:08Penalty
3rd 13:08Penalty