AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 31

Milwaukee Admirals at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Milwaukee Admirals
1:2
Final / SO
Iowa Wild

The sheet

MILIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
35%65%
xG
1.72.4
High danger
33
Chances
58
Shots
2428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal28
5Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances3
1.67Expected goals2.44

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–83–32–20.7–0.6
2nd7–140–40–00.3–1.2
3rd9–62–11–10.6–0.6
OT1–00–00–00.1–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA116:56 of the 3rd3:041:30+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
28
Saves
27
Allowed
1
xGA
2.44
GSAx
+1.44
Cal Petersen
Shots faced
24
Saves
23
Allowed
1
xGA
1.67
GSAx
+0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:57Penalty
  • 1st 5:27Penalty
  • 1st 18:24Penalty
  • 1st 18:24Penalty
  • 2nd 0:52Jake Lucchini (1–0)low · 25 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 3:28Penalty
  • 2nd 3:28Penalty
  • 2nd 3:28Penalty
  • 2nd 11:23Penalty
  • 2nd 11:23Penalty
  • 2nd 17:40Penalty
  • 2nd 19:50Penalty
  • 3rd 4:34Penalty
  • 3rd 11:45Penalty
  • 3rd 18:26Ben Jones (1–1)grade A · 9 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • OT 3:33Penalty