Bridgeport Islanders at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

3:5

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

BRILVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 2.21.7
High danger: 22
Chances: 67
Shots: 3121

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal21

6Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances2

2.22Expected goals1.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–10	2–2	1–0	0.9–0.7
2nd	12–5	3–3	1–0	1.0–0.5
3rd	5–6	1–2	0–2	0.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: -0.78

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 9
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.95
GSAx: -2.05

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 7
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.76
GSAx: -1.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:52Joey Larson (1–0)low · 24 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
1st 6:29Jacob Gaucher (1–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
1st 11:38Christian Kyrou (1–2)low · 35 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
1st 16:18Penalty
2nd 0:45Ethan Bear (2–2)low · 38 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
2nd 5:12Anthony Richard (2–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 5:36Penalty
2nd 7:52Penalty
2nd 12:16Zayde Wisdom (2–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 14:51Penalty
3rd 10:24Penalty
3rd 18:16Pierrick Dubé (3–4)low · 21 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
3rd 18:52Zayde Wisdom (3–5)empty net · low · 64 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen