Grand Rapids Griffins at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

5:2

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

GRCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.32.5
High danger: 85
Chances: 1410
Shots: 2726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal26

14Scoring chances10

8High-danger chances5

3.34Expected goals2.53

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	3–2	1–2	0.9–0.7
2nd	10–14	7–6	4–2	1.5–1.4
3rd	6–5	4–2	3–1	1.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	2	13:43 of the 3rd	6:17	6:17	+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.34
GSAx: -1.66

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: +0.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:13Juuso Välimäki (0–1)low · 39 ft · beat Michal Postava
1st 7:17Penalty
1st 12:14Dominik Shine (1–1)low · 33 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
1st 13:36Amadeus Lombardi (2–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 8:02Alex Doucet (3–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 8:29Domenick Fensore (3–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Michal Postava
2nd 11:15Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 11:54Penalty
3rd 13:43Sheldon Dries (4–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
3rd 16:04Penalty
3rd 16:04Austin Watson (5–2)high · 19 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty