Henderson Silver Knights at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Henderson Silver Knights

1:3

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

HSKTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 3.01.6
High danger: 73
Chances: 113
Shots: 3020

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal20

11Scoring chances3

7High-danger chances3

2.96Expected goals1.57

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–4	5–0	2–0	1.3–0.2
2nd	6–6	1–1	1–1	0.5–0.5
3rd	12–10	5–2	4–2	1.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: +1.96

Jesper Vikman

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.57
GSAx: -1.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:24Penalty
1st 14:42Penalty
1st 15:04Mitch McLain (1–0)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 15:57Penalty
1st 16:32Penalty
1st 16:32Penalty
2nd 6:16Penalty
2nd 6:48Matthew Seminoff (1–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
2nd 10:09Artem Shlaine (1–2)low · 21 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
2nd 17:20Penalty
3rd 7:30Penalty
3rd 7:30Penalty
3rd 7:30Penalty
3rd 19:38Cameron Hughes (1–3)empty net · low · 96 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 19:54Penalty
3rd 19:54Penalty