AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 31

Ontario Reign at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Ontario Reign
3:4
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

ONTSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
15%85%
xG
1.63.8
High danger
16
Chances
612
Shots
1939

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal39
6Scoring chances12
1High-danger chances6
1.61Expected goals3.83

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–103–10–10.5–0.7
2nd11–102–50–20.8–1.1
3rd2–191–61–30.3–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT119:42 of the 3rd0:180:18+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
39
Saves
35
Allowed
4
xGA
3.83
GSAx
-0.17
Calle Clang
Shots faced
19
Saves
16
Allowed
3
xGA
1.61
GSAx
-1.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:46Penalty
  • 1st 2:46Penalty
  • 1st 10:09Andre Lee (1–0)medium · 27 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 17:38Penalty
  • 2nd 1:26Judd Caulfield (1–1)low · 52 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 3:19Penalty
  • 2nd 5:47Jared Wright (2–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 9:57Penalty
  • 2nd 12:19Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 3rd 4:19Tyson Hinds (2–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 5:34Jakub Dvořák (3–2)low · 56 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 10:38Ryan Carpenter (3–3)low · 19 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 11:49Penalty
  • 3rd 13:48Penalty
  • 3rd 13:48Penalty
  • 3rd 13:48Penalty
  • 3rd 13:48Penalty
  • 3rd 19:42Nathan Gaucher (3–4)low · 14 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty