Calgary Wranglers at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Calgary Wranglers

2:7

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

CGYSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 1.92.9
High danger: 23
Chances: 915
Shots: 2428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 70% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal28

9Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances3

1.92Expected goals2.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	4–5	0–1	0.7–1.2
2nd	7–7	4–3	2–0	0.8–0.6
3rd	8–11	1–7	0–2	0.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	1:56 of the 3rd	18:04	18:04	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.92
GSAx: -0.08

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 13
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.79
GSAx: -2.21

Arsenii Sergeev

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 8
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.16
GSAx: -1.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:33Braden Hache (0–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 2:49Sam Morton (1–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 6:28Penalty
2nd 0:31Oliver Wahlstrom (1–2)low · 42 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 3:44Penalty
2nd 8:54Mattias Havelid (1–3)low · 39 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 10:03Anthony Vincent (1–4)low · 40 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 10:34Sam Morton (2–4)medium · 10 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 14:04Penalty
2nd 14:04Penalty
2nd 18:33Penalty
3rd 1:56Egor Afanasyev (2–5)medium · 16 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 3:37Cam Lund (2–6)high · 23 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 14:13Filip Bystedt (2–7)medium · 27 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 16:29Penalty
3rd 16:29Penalty
3rd 18:42Penalty