Abbotsford Canucks at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

2:3

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ABBBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 5.32.8
High danger: 86
Chances: 199
Shots: 5324

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

53Shots on goal24

19Scoring chances9

8High-danger chances6

5.33Expected goals2.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	20–13	10–3	4–2	2.7–1.3
2nd	23–6	7–4	4–3	2.0–1.1
3rd	10–5	2–2	0–1	0.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	6:54	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ungar

Shots faced: 53
Saves: 51
Allowed: 2
xGA: 5.33
GSAx: +3.33

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: -0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:36James Hamblin (0–1)low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 18:07Penalty
2nd 2:02Penalty
2nd 13:46Lukas Reichel (1–1)medium · tip · 19 ft · beat Connor Ungar
3rd 10:39Viljami Marjala (1–2)medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 11:20Roby Järventie (1–3)high · backhand · 10 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 15:59Lukas Reichel (2–3)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Connor Ungar
3rd 16:42Penalty