Rockford IceHogs at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Rockford IceHogs

1:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

RFDMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 2.32.2
High danger: 34
Chances: 69
Shots: 3325

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal25

6Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances4

2.29Expected goals2.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–14	3–6	0–3	0.5–1.3
2nd	12–7	1–2	1–1	0.7–0.6
3rd	15–4	2–1	2–0	1.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.29
GSAx: +1.29

Stanislav Berezhnoy

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: +0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:21Penalty
1st 0:41Brayden Yager (0–1)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
1st 4:04Penalty
1st 9:47Penalty
1st 12:06Penalty
1st 15:16Penalty
1st 15:16Penalty
2nd 2:35David Gustafsson (0–2)low · 11 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 4:29Penalty
2nd 9:43Nick Lardis (1–2)low · 19 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 14:24Penalty
3rd 3:24Penalty
3rd 3:24Penalty
3rd 5:08Penalty
3rd 7:11Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty