Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

5:1

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

81%19%

xG: 3.82.1
High danger: 91
Chances: 1511
Shots: 3121

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal21

15Scoring chances11

9High-danger chances1

3.77Expected goals2.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	6–4	2–1	1.5–0.9
2nd	9–9	4–7	2–0	0.9–1.0
3rd	9–2	5–0	5–0	1.4–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.77
GSAx: -1.23

Jack LaFontaine

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: +1.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:54Jagger Firkus (1–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 5:58Penalty
1st 5:58Penalty
1st 7:37Penalty
1st 8:14Lleyton Roed (2–0)4v5 · medium · 26 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 8:55Jack Hughes (2–1)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Jack LaFontaine
1st 15:45Penalty
1st 19:58Penalty
2nd 4:17Mitchell Stephens (3–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 12:49Penalty
2nd 16:02Lleyton Roed (4–1)low · 34 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 6:56Penalty
3rd 9:34Jagger Firkus (5–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 11:58Penalty