AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, February 3

Calgary Wranglers at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Calgary Wranglers
2:3
Final / OT
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CGYBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
2.62.6
High danger
34
Chances
77
Shots
2330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal30
7Scoring chances7
3High-danger chances4
2.62Expected goals2.61

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–101–11–10.4–0.8
2nd9–143–40–20.7–1.2
3rd8–43–22–11.5–0.5
OT1–20–00–00.1–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY116:56 of the 3rd3:041:59+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arsenii Sergeev
Shots faced
30
Saves
27
Allowed
3
xGA
2.61
GSAx
-0.39
Connor Ungar
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
2.62
GSAx
+0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:12Penalty
  • 1st 9:48Penalty
  • 1st 9:48Penalty
  • 2nd 9:00Penalty
  • 2nd 9:00Penalty
  • 2nd 12:29Clark Bishop (1–0)medium · wrist · 38 ft · beat Connor Ungar
  • 2nd 13:56Luke Prokop (1–1)low · 67 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 16:30Penalty
  • 3rd 0:24Isaac Howard (1–2)low · slap · 27 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 3rd 5:34Penalty
  • 3rd 12:13Penalty
  • 3rd 18:55Sam Morton (2–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 12 ft · beat Connor Ungar
  • OT 1:37Isaac Howard (2–3)low · wrist · 31 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev