Springfield Thunderbirds at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Springfield Thunderbirds

3:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

SPRSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 4.12.2
High danger: 62
Chances: 118
Shots: 3020

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal20

11Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances2

4.09Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	4–4	2–1	1.3–0.8
2nd	6–9	1–2	0–0	0.5–0.9
3rd	17–4	6–2	4–1	2.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.09
GSAx: +1.09

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: -1.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:46Chris Wagner (1–0)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 13:09Penalty
1st 15:56Tristan Allard (1–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 16:17Michael Buchinger (2–1)grade A · rebound · 194 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 19:34Penalty
1st 19:43Dylan Duke (2–2)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 19:59Wyatt Newpower (2–3)low · 19 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 5:22Maxim Groshev (2–4)low · 29 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 13:30Penalty
2nd 14:24Penalty
3rd 0:45Penalty
3rd 1:29Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (3–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 3:19Penalty
3rd 19:33Penalty