Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears

1:4

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 3.33.1
High danger: 64
Chances: 1315
Shots: 3129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal29

13Scoring chances15

6High-danger chances4

3.29Expected goals3.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–10	5–3	3–0	1.6–0.8
2nd	11–6	6–2	3–1	1.4–0.5
3rd	3–13	2–10	0–3	0.3–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	14:40 of the 3rd	5:20	5:20	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.28
GSAx: +2.28

Mitch Gibson

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.12
GSAx: -0.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:12Penalty
1st 16:04Penalty
2nd 0:38Penalty
2nd 1:19Penalty
2nd 11:52Penalty
2nd 17:05Penalty
3rd 1:39Aaron Huglen (0–1)low · wrist · 48 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
3rd 4:08Grant Cruikshank (1–1)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 6:53Penalty
3rd 7:55Avery Hayes (1–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 26 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
3rd 14:40Tanner Howe (1–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
3rd 15:33Aidan McDonough (1–4)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Mitch Gibson