Tucson Roadrunners at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

1:5

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

TUCONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 1.62.4
High danger: 27
Chances: 611
Shots: 1921

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal21

6Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances7

1.56Expected goals2.36

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	3–4	1–0	0.6–0.7
2nd	8–9	2–3	1–3	0.7–0.7
3rd	3–5	1–4	0–4	0.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.36
GSAx: -2.64

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.56
GSAx: +0.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:53Jacob Doty (0–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 10:26Martin Chromiak (0–2)low · 31 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 10:34Glenn Gawdin (0–3)medium · 30 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 12:10Penalty
2nd 14:10Kevin Rooney (1–3)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 1:42Penalty
3rd 13:17Penalty
3rd 14:00Aatu Jämsen (1–4)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 17:31Francesco Pinelli (1–5)empty net · low · 40 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 17:54Penalty