AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 6

Belleville Senators at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Belleville Senators
3:5
Final
Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

BELSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
44%56%
xG
2.82.7
High danger
26
Chances
118
Shots
3227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SYR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal27
11Scoring chances8
2High-danger chances6
2.77Expected goals2.70

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–95–30–31.1–0.9
2nd11–94–32–21.0–1.0
3rd10–92–20–10.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL212:58 of the 3rd7:026:28+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jon Gillies
Shots faced
32
Saves
29
Allowed
3
xGA
2.77
GSAx
-0.23
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
27
Saves
22
Allowed
5
xGA
2.70
GSAx
-2.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:56Maxim Groshev (0–1)low · 47 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 6:05Penalty
  • 1st 10:12Carter Yakemchuk (1–1)low · 61 ft · beat Jon Gillies
  • 1st 11:14Penalty
  • 1st 11:14Penalty
  • 1st 17:29Lucas Mercuri (1–2)low · 24 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 17:59Penalty
  • 2nd 3:07Penalty
  • 2nd 8:32Penalty
  • 2nd 10:16Penalty
  • 2nd 10:16Penalty
  • 2nd 12:09Ethan Gauthier (1–3)low · 40 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 12:41Penalty
  • 2nd 12:41Penalty
  • 2nd 18:10Penalty
  • 3rd 4:23Penalty
  • 3rd 5:50Carter Yakemchuk (2–3)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Jon Gillies
  • 3rd 11:18Penalty
  • 3rd 12:58Ethan Gauthier (2–4)5v4 · high · rebound · 33 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 3rd 16:00Penalty
  • 3rd 16:22Arthur Kaliyev (3–4)5v4 · low · 40 ft · beat Jon Gillies
  • 3rd 18:58Penalty
  • 3rd 18:58Penalty
  • 3rd 18:58Penalty
  • 3rd 19:39Penalty
  • 3rd 19:39Penalty
  • 3rd 19:39Penalty
  • 3rd 19:39Mitchell Chaffee (3–5)empty net · medium · 20 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty