Springfield Thunderbirds at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Springfield Thunderbirds

0:4

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

SPRROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 1.84.0
High danger: 29
Chances: 613
Shots: 2542

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal42

6Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances9

1.76Expected goals3.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–13	3–1	1–1	0.7–0.7
2nd	8–20	2–8	1–5	0.5–2.1
3rd	10–9	1–4	0–3	0.6–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 38
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.99
GSAx: -0.01

Scott Ratzlaff

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 25
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.76
GSAx: +1.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:04Isak Rosén (0–1)low · 27 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 10:04Penalty
1st 13:16Penalty
1st 16:18Penalty
1st 16:18Penalty
1st 17:02Isak Rosén (0–2)low · 31 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 3:38Penalty
2nd 3:38Penalty
2nd 5:34Isak Rosén (0–3)low · 45 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 9:04Penalty
2nd 14:49Trevor Kuntar (0–4)high · 28 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 5:23Penalty
3rd 5:23Penalty
3rd 9:10Penalty