AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 6

Tucson Roadrunners at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Tucson Roadrunners
7:3
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

TUCCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
3.12.5
High danger
62
Chances
911
Shots
2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 38% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29
9Scoring chances11
6High-danger chances2
3.06Expected goals2.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–102–61–10.9–1.0
2nd12–106–44–11.8–0.9
3rd3–91–11–00.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY38:20 of the 3rd11:4011:40+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
2.46
GSAx
-0.54
Arsenii Sergeev
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
2.68
GSAx
-2.32
Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
4
Saves
2
Allowed
2
xGA
0.38
GSAx
-1.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:20Penalty
  • 1st 10:26Penalty
  • 1st 15:19Penalty
  • 1st 16:05Aydar Suniev (0–1)5v4 · low · 42 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 19:15Penalty
  • 2nd 3:23Noel Nordh (1–1)low · wrist · 22 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 4:29Ben McCartney (2–1)medium · snap · 14 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 6:13Sam Morton (2–2)high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 9:38Austin Poganski (3–2)high · backhand · 8 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 10:59Jack Ricketts (4–2)grade A · backhand · rebound · 3 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 12:07Penalty
  • 2nd 12:50Ben McCartney (5–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 16 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 13:22Penalty
  • 2nd 16:18Penalty
  • 2nd 16:18Penalty
  • 2nd 17:51Daniil Miromanov (5–3)low · wrist · 61 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 7:14Penalty
  • 3rd 8:20Dmitri Simashev (6–3)5v4 · low · wrist · 57 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 12:46Jack Ricketts (7–3)high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov