AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 6

Ontario Reign at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Ontario Reign
4:3
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ONTBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
76%24%
xG
3.11.7
High danger
53
Chances
95
Shots
2921

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal21
9Scoring chances5
5High-danger chances3
3.13Expected goals1.70

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–60–20–10.4–0.5
2nd18–87–15–12.4–0.4
3rd3–72–20–10.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
3.13
GSAx
-0.87
Erik Portillo
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
1.70
GSAx
-1.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:32Luke Prokop (0–1)low · wrist · 67 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 2:57Penalty
  • 2nd 2:57Penalty
  • 2nd 10:09Aatu Jämsen (1–1)grade A · tip · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 10:52Penalty
  • 2nd 12:21Penalty
  • 2nd 16:51Cole Guttman (2–1)medium · tip · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 3:33Penalty
  • 3rd 11:50Glenn Gawdin (3–1)medium · wrist · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 17:01James Hamblin (3–2)high · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 18:10Jared Wright (4–2)empty net · medium · 14 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 19:16Viljami Marjala (4–3)medium · wrist · 29 ft · beat Erik Portillo