Coachella Valley Firebirds at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:3

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

CVHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 3.02.5
High danger: 62
Chances: 118
Shots: 2632

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal32

11Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances2

2.97Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	2–4	1–2	0.8–1.2
2nd	11–10	6–2	3–0	1.3–0.8
3rd	8–10	3–2	2–0	0.9–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: -0.53

Cameron Whitehead

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: -1.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:05Penalty
1st 18:00Penalty
1st 19:33Dylan Coghlan (0–1)5v4 · low · slap · 47 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 1:21Jani Nyman (1–1)medium · tip · 12 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
2nd 6:11Penalty
2nd 8:20Penalty
2nd 8:47Dylan Coghlan (1–2)5v4 · low · slap · 50 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 12:12Ville Ottavainen (2–2)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
2nd 15:16Jagger Firkus (3–2)high · wrist · 6 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
3rd 0:38Ben Hemmerling (3–3)medium · slap · 15 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 1:43Andrei Loshko (4–3)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
3rd 5:35Penalty
3rd 16:11Penalty