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‹ Friday, February 6

San Jose Barracuda at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

San Jose Barracuda
7:3
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

SJABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
35%65%
xG
2.13.0
High danger
35
Chances
1012
Shots
2423

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal23
10Scoring chances12
3High-danger chances5
2.13Expected goals2.95

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–61–20–20.3–0.6
2nd7–62–51–20.6–1.3
3rd11–117–52–11.2–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB214:02 of the 3rd5:585:58+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
24
Saves
17
Allowed
7
xGA
2.13
GSAx
-4.87
Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
2.95
GSAx
-0.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 18:13Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 3:13Arshdeep Bains (0–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 10:28Jimmy Huntington (1–1)high · 20 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 10:55Jonathan Lekkerimäki (1–2)grade A · 44 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 13:04Penalty
  • 2nd 13:04Penalty
  • 2nd 15:29Oliver Wahlstrom (2–2)low · 37 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 15:41Penalty
  • 3rd 5:28Victor Mancini (2–3)low · 65 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 5:41Penalty
  • 3rd 7:55Egor Afanasyev (3–3)high · 19 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 8:12Penalty
  • 3rd 12:51Egor Afanasyev (4–3)medium · 29 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 14:02Nolan Allan (5–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 17:50Braden Hache (6–3)empty net · low · 163 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 18:06Penalty
  • 3rd 18:06Penalty
  • 3rd 18:06Anthony Vincent (7–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 18:13Penalty
  • 3rd 18:13Penalty