Springfield Thunderbirds at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Springfield Thunderbirds

1:5

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

SPRTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 2.33.7
High danger: 112
Chances: 817
Shots: 3033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal33

8Scoring chances17

1High-danger chances12

2.34Expected goals3.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–5	2–1	1–1	0.9–0.3
2nd	11–14	6–8	0–5	1.2–1.7
3rd	4–14	0–8	0–6	0.2–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	3	11:45 of the 3rd	8:15	8:15	+0.011 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: +1.34

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.39
GSAx: +1.39

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 5
Saves: 2
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.34
GSAx: -2.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:04Penalty
1st 0:04Penalty
1st 0:10Penalty
1st 0:10Penalty
1st 0:15Penalty
1st 0:15Penalty
1st 0:15Penalty
1st 1:12Vinni Lettieri (0–1)low · 40 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 13:24Logan Shaw (0–2)low · 49 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 14:47Michael Pezzetta (0–3)high · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 15:27Penalty
2nd 1:05Penalty
2nd 6:07Penalty
2nd 14:14Penalty
2nd 19:49Calle Rosén (1–3)medium · rebound · 23 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 10:14Penalty
3rd 11:45Luke Haymes (1–4)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 14:54Penalty
3rd 14:54Penalty
3rd 15:41Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–5)empty net · high · 29 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 18:13Penalty