Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

1:5

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

LVBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 2.43.1
High danger: 44
Chances: 1110
Shots: 2032

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal32

11Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances4

2.37Expected goals3.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	5–4	2–2	1.0–0.9
2nd	5–11	2–2	0–1	0.5–1.2
3rd	7–12	4–4	2–1	0.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	3	10:45 of the 3rd	9:15	9:15	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: -1.87

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: +1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:09Adam Beckman (0–1)low · 37 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 12:50Liam Foudy (0–2)high · 11 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 16:11Matthew Maggio (0–3)medium · 29 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 18:29Penalty
1st 19:04Lane Pederson (1–3)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 17:08Penalty
3rd 5:55Penalty
3rd 10:45Liam Foudy (1–4)medium · 26 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 11:17Penalty
3rd 15:51Penalty
3rd 19:55Liam Foudy (1–5)empty net · low · 131 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov