AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 7

Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs
3:1
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
22%78%
xG
1.52.5
High danger
13
Chances
46
Shots
2129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal29
4Scoring chances6
1High-danger chances3
1.47Expected goals2.48

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–71–20–10.5–0.6
2nd7–82–11–00.6–0.5
3rd5–141–30–20.4–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
29
Saves
28
Allowed
1
xGA
2.48
GSAx
+1.48
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
1.47
GSAx
-1.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:22Penalty
  • 1st 0:22Penalty
  • 1st 0:22Penalty
  • 1st 0:22Penalty
  • 1st 0:22Penalty
  • 1st 0:22Penalty
  • 1st 0:22Penalty
  • 1st 0:22Penalty
  • 1st 8:43Penalty
  • 1st 8:43Penalty
  • 1st 8:43Penalty
  • 1st 8:43Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Penalty
  • 1st 14:07Penalty
  • 1st 14:07Zach L’Heureux (0–1)medium · 32 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 18:01Gavin Hayes (1–1)low · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 18:27Penalty
  • 1st 18:27Kevin Lombardi (2–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 2:05Penalty
  • 2nd 4:05Penalty
  • 2nd 5:49Penalty
  • 2nd 10:19Nick Lardis (3–1)low · 26 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 6:07Penalty
  • 3rd 6:14Penalty
  • 3rd 6:14Penalty
  • 3rd 11:45Penalty
  • 3rd 18:04Penalty
  • 3rd 18:04Penalty