San Jose Barracuda at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

San Jose Barracuda

1:2

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

SJABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

61%39%

xG: 3.42.5
High danger: 34
Chances: 128
Shots: 4025

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal25

12Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances4

3.37Expected goals2.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	4–2	1–1	1.0–0.9
2nd	11–9	4–2	1–2	1.1–0.7
3rd	18–8	4–4	1–1	1.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	3:49	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 39
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: +2.37

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: +0.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:53Penalty
1st 1:53Penalty
1st 5:40Penalty
1st 5:40Penalty
1st 6:20Penalty
1st 12:35Penalty
1st 16:08Danila Klimovich (0–1)low · 27 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 18:45Penalty
2nd 11:32Penalty
2nd 12:25Penalty
2nd 12:33Ty Mueller (0–2)high · 14 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 6:38Penalty
3rd 6:38Penalty
3rd 9:29Penalty
3rd 12:54Igor Chernyshov (1–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 13:18Penalty
3rd 13:18Penalty
3rd 15:36Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty