AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 7

Manitoba Moose at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Manitoba Moose
3:4
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

MBTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
71%29%
xG
2.91.7
High danger
41
Chances
57
Shots
3620

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal20
5Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances1
2.86Expected goals1.68

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–81–21–01.0–0.5
2nd11–43–12–01.0–0.3
3rd9–81–41–10.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB216:10 of the 3rd3:503:50+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
2.86
GSAx
-0.14
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
20
Saves
16
Allowed
4
xGA
1.68
GSAx
-2.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:52Penalty
  • 1st 13:53Kole Lind (0–1)low · 12 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 19:05Penalty
  • 1st 19:05Penalty
  • 2nd 8:01Brad Lambert (1–1)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 13:29Penalty
  • 2nd 19:18Ashton Sautner (2–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 8:57Jack Becker (2–2)high · 8 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 10:40Justin Ertel (2–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 13:31Penalty
  • 3rd 16:10Michael Karow (2–4)low · 54 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 18:01Mason Shaw (3–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier