Tucson Roadrunners at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Tucson Roadrunners

6:5

Final / OT

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

TUCCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 4.22.8
High danger: 99
Chances: 1311
Shots: 3324

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 38% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal24

13Scoring chances11

9High-danger chances9

4.21Expected goals2.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	2–7	1–6	0.5–1.5
2nd	10–9	4–2	3–2	1.1–0.7
3rd	13–4	6–2	4–1	2.1–0.5
OT	2–1	1–0	1–0	0.5–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:46	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 27
Allowed: 6
xGA: 4.21
GSAx: -1.79

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.79
GSAx: -2.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:46Penalty
1st 2:40Miko Matikka (1–0)5v4 · high · snap · 15 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 4:27Penalty
1st 12:43Penalty
1st 13:36William Strömgren (1–1)5v4 · high · snap · 9 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 16:26Kevin Rooney (2–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 35 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 19:19Penalty
2nd 5:34Ben McCartney (3–1)high · backhand · 10 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 5:41Penalty
2nd 7:46Daniil Miromanov (3–2)low · slap · 55 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 8:34Carter King (3–3)high · tip · 15 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 9:54Penalty
2nd 11:25Penalty
2nd 13:05Dryden Hunt (3–4)4v5 · low · wrist · 40 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 14:47Owen Allard (4–4)medium · wrist · 26 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 6:59Rory Kerins (4–5)high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 8:13Penalty
3rd 19:42Dmitri Simashev (5–5)grade A · wrist · rebound · 5 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
OT 0:28Penalty
OT 2:09Scott Perunovich (6–5)5v4 · low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov